Legislative elections: A first warning for Nicholas Sarkozy

From NouvelObs.com

Nicholas Sarkozy has a majority at his disposal to implement his reforms, but will have to take into account the warning given by electors at Sunday's second round of legislative elections. With 345 members including 313 for the UMP, the resident of the Elysée Palace has won a tinted victory, obscured by the symbolic defeat of Alain Juppé.


The head of state took his first decision after the elections in renewing Prime Minister François Fillon, who tendered his resignation and the government's, conforming to republican tradition.
The composition of the second Fillon ministry should be known Tuesday. The reshuffling will be more extensive than expected due to the surprise defeat of Alain Juppé in the second district of the Gironde. Several names have been put forward to replace him, including the former Environment and Foreign Affairs Minister Michel Barnier and Economy Minister Jean-Louis Borloo. Seven or eight secretaries of state should make their entrance into the government.
The Fillion II team is expected to confirm the choices of openness, affirmative action and renewal.



Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon have consulted at greater length Monday, before and after the ceremony of the 18th of June at Mont-Valérien. While the President met with Mr Borloo, the Prime Minister was meeting with Mr Juppé. On the whole, the head of state, whose honeymoon is decidedly finished, will have to tale into account a tighter victory than was expected from the UMP. He is expected to appear on television Wednesday to present his plan of action after these elections.

Certainly, none of the policies promised during the presidential campaign can be put into question. From Sunday night, François Fillon confirmed the program of the extraordinary sitting of parliament that will be recalled in July to vote on the first laws of the Sarkozy presidency: labour and employment laws and purchasing power, that will set the scenes for tax measures and the removal of taxes on overtime, minimal sentences for re-offenders, the autonomy of universities and the setting of minimum service delivery for public transport.

But a shift is always possible. The TVA sociale policy (social value-added-tax), judged responsible by some for the rise of the left between the two rounds of voting, seems to be in jeopardy. The eventual decision on its introduction will be taken "at the end of the month of July" said Budget Minister Eric Woerth. The TVA sociale is "not government policy" but a "subject of debate" among the parliamentary majority, assured the UMP Parliamentary Group deputy spokesman Patrick Devedjian.

What ever it is, Nicolas Sarkozy will have to further explain the benefits of his reforms. With its shambles last week on the TVA sociale, the government has invited criticism from the left on a supposed increase on the TVA after the legislative elections. It will require "enormous efforts of explanation" recognised Mr Woerth. The policy of openness could also prove itself more difficult to put into practice with the left holding 227 seats, of which 186 for the Socialist Party. The majority will keep to its promise to reassert the value of the opposition, that will see it take the presidency of the Finance Committee at the National Assembly, confirmed Mr Devedjian.

More immediately, the announcement of Hollande-Royal seperation has more so served the majority in eclipsing the jump in the Socialist Party's second round vote. Ségolène Royal confirmed Monday the end of her relationship with the Party's First Secretary, with whom she lived as a common law wife for almost thirty years. This "clarification" coincides with the opening of a new page in Socialist Party history, that of the rebuilding after the two consecutive defeats at presidential and legislative elections. While the party while hold a national council on Saturday to examine the causes of its defeats and to begin its transformation, Ségolène Royal has confirmed her intention to canvass for the leadership of the party. Back in the saddle after the latest elections, François Hollande has announced that he would remain in the post as expected until the party congress scheduled to be held after the municipal elections of 2008.