Dunfermline & West Fife By-election

A by-election to return a member to serve for the electorate of Dunfermline & West Fife was held last Thursday, in order to fill a vacancy brought about by the death of the sitting member Rachel Squire (Lab). She held the seat safely gaining a 11,500 vote majority. A week is a long time in politics, and each of the major parties primarily had their own issues of leadership to deal with.

For the incumbent Labor government, the long standing rivalry between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had not cooled. The situation resembles that of Prime Minister Howard and Treasurer Costello. Except that in this case, Blair does not have the same ascendance. Blair looks less and less in control as his historic third term draws to a close. Brown, Chancellor of the Exchequer and a Scot who represents the neighbouring electorate of Kircaldy (that’s Kirkaudy phonetically), had been campaigning personally in the area. Indeed he should: Brown resides in the Dunfermline & West Fife constituency. A huge loss for Labour on the eve of its annual conference would not boost the morale of delegates. Not only are relations difficult between neighbours in Downing Street, but also between Westminster and Holyrood.

Scotland was granted limited self government in 1999 and holds much the same residual powers as an Australian state (Education, Police, Local Councils etc…). Jack McConnell (Lab), the First Minister of Scotland still consults regularly with British ministers on the state of roads, as they can assist with funding. The Forth Road Bridge, which links the north of Edinburgh to Fife suddenly became an issue. Users pay £1 to cross the bridge. Confusion reigned as to whether the charge would be upped to £4 at peak times, with free use otherwise or whether a second bridge was to be built. This is a big issue, because many Fife residents travel on the Forth Road Bridge to work in Edinburgh. The other candidates and their parties (particularly the Scottish National Party) rightfully asked who was making the decisions. Was McConnell under the influence of Brown? Well, it was an unwelcome distraction. An Abolish Forth Bridge Tolls candidate stood in an ever increasing melee of candidates, backers, and helpers.

 

The Liberal Democrats have had their share of problems since Charles Kennedy resigned when his problems with alcohol surfaced. The acting leader Sir Menzies “Ming” Campbell, gave the impression of being an outsider; experienced by too old. Mark Oaten, Chris Huhne and Simon Hughes stood out. Unfortunately, scandals gripped two of the contenders. Simon Hughes was rumored to be gay, but denied it several times in different publications. With pressure building, he finally admitted that he was bisexual. One bites the dust. More revelations of the kind were to follow however. Mark Oaten was sensationally exposed by The News of The World as having used male prostitutes whilst married. Chris Huhne and Ming Campbell. I predict Ming to win. With the crises that have enveloped the party, grass roots members will look for the old guard.

 

As for the Tories, they’ve had a makeover down south. Instead of the vampiresque Michael Howard leading the charge, David Cameron, a man who has described his life as terribly privileged, was making all the right noises. That was until he was caught out and labeled a Flip-Flop. As he had written the (doomed) 2005 election manifesto, he cannot change the policies contained in it without attracting the scorn of Labor frontbenchers, who seemed ready to pounce. Cameron’s PMQ performances seem to rally the backbench, more so than his successor. But can this momentum be converted into a win for the Scottish Tories, who could almost be considered a political sect on the fringes. Unfortunately not.

 

The SNP have no problems apart from sounding like that brat of a tennis player John McEnroe. The SNP ask the question about total devolution over and over, getting a sharp shake of the head for their worries. “You cannot be serious” could well be their motto, as the SNP refuses to acknowledge the answer given by a Scottish public. NO

 

All the above events occurred during the campaign week, or were engrained into the public psyche come time to vote. All this turmoil has meant that an 11,000 margin is not as safe as it sounds. And sure enough it wasn’t, the Liberal Democrats candidate William Rennie, defeated the Labor candidate by just over 1,500 votes. It has been measured as 16.8% swing against Labor in Scotland, and it is the first time Scottish Labor have lost a by-election since 1980. Although finishing fourth, the Conservatives can take heart of the electorate’s dislike of Tony Blair, and the many protest votes that have flowed to the Liberal Democrats. Perhaps that south of the Border, Labor will lose seats to both major parties and the protests get louder. A hell of a lot to write for something apparently insignificant, but well worth the practice. I really should have written it before the event.